without-disaster line, we get estimates of indirect losses. Regards. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. there remains no confusion in economics sense. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). It is also evident that smaller-scaled enterprises, e first two years period in total records almost equal values with those of the. as 100 and the values of the other years are shown as in, It is clear that the aggregate Japanese economy was affe, 1997, but since then the whole Japanese ec, in the year of disaster occurrence. The proposed model has an additional capability of scheduling resources to meet limitations that can either come from labor congestion or from a surge in demands following a disaster. This study focuses on the development of a repair time model, the main constituent of the recovery model, which shall provide an estimate of the time necessary for performing the actual repairs along with the rate at which such repairs proceed throughout the building. Both civilian and emergency services are displaying their remarkable effectiveness in coping with these disasters. Taking the losses as negative values, they are ex, disaster line predicted an increase by 388 billion y, ured by a difference of HGRP. A crane and several construction vehicles lay toppled on a fractured road in Kobe, Japan, after a 7.2-magnitude temblor shook the quake-prone country. Direct loss occurs only at the initial st, resting possible cases. A simulation of a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone near Memphis, Tennessee, indicates the potential production loss over the recovery period could amount to as much as 7 percent of gross regional product. Third, some special polic, regional economic activities such as a special economic zone should be allowed at an earlier stage after a disaster, occurs. Fires following the earthquake incinerated the equivalent of 70 U.S. city blocks. Although people on duty could see that there were many tremors (prior to the earthquake), they did not raise the alarm. Post-quake Kobe was very different from Kobe before the quake. 2 report the combined economic impacts of the effects of Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, which are defined as the gap between the counterfactual and the actual data after the fiscal year 1994 (note that January 1995 is in the fiscal year 1994). Two years after the quake, all debris had been removed â a colossal achievement â and all the infrastructure restored. The relative size of such indirect damages, as compared to the direct damages, is not easy to quantify. SNA (= System of National Accounts) is an international standard system of national accounts. More detailed post-disaster information would allow for improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood risk models. Estimation of Direct Losses from Earthquakes for Each Local Municipalities. Cost estimates for ﬂood resilience and protection strategies in New York Cit, Cost estimates of storm surge barriers for NYC and NJ, Economic and direct losses from Hurricane Sandy, Cost estimates of flood protection and resilience measures, Cost estimates of Strategy Open Resilient City, Flood management strategies for New York City, Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales, Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC, EVALUACIÓN DEL TIEMPO DE RECUPERACIÓN DE EDIFICIOS DE CONCRETO REFORZADO DAÑADOS POR SISMO, Repair Time Model for Buildings Considering the Earthquake Hazard, Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities of Natural Hazard Loss Estimation, The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions, Economic Impacts of Kobe Earthquake: A Quantitative Evaluation after 13 Years, Modeling Dynamics of Post-Disaster Recovery. Can politicians understand that? Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses. The earthquake that hit Kobe, Japan on 1995/01/16 was magnitude 6.9. Reflecting the reconstr, estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework, conceptual discussion, I will review my former study that was based on a set of questionnaires of some 1,200, My main research in this paper will be described in pa, income in terms of estimated indirect losses are quite large, very surprising fact beyond the common sense among the relate, derive a without-disaster line for the dam, business fluctuations into consideration. The shambles of Australiaâs energy transition, Central Institute for Economic Management, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Fiscal Plicy Research Institute Foundation, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, Philippines Institute for Development Studies, Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Institute for Integrated Development Studies, Marga Institute: Centre for Development Studies, National Centre of Applied Economic Research, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Research and Information System for Developing Countries. Less than eighteen months later, in fact, manufacturing output in the Kobe region reached 98 per cent of pre-quake levels. This essay has also been published in the Australian Financial Review, Monday, 14 March 2011. It is called to be integrated of order 1. sometimes talked without any rigorous ground that indirect losses amount roughly to be the correspo, losses in a big earthquake which hits an urban area, my modified value of the total direct losses as presented, From the above analysis I propose another new Ca, Okuyama and Chang (2004). after, Hyogo Prefecture, II, 372-445 (in Japanese). The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. The total sum of indirect losses durin, findings will be deducted. Subt. Kobe earthquake of 1995 killed over 6,000 persons, and destroyed more than 100,000 homes, still the economic recovery not only of Japan but also of the Kobe economy was rapid.â Muchofthis view can betraced toanarticle byGeorge Horwich published The stock market took a dive (down 7.5 per cent in the days following Kobe; the futures index was down 2 per cent after Sendai) but GDP slowed only little and over the ensuing two years kicked up, in part because of Kobe’s reconstruction and investment in modernisation. Table 1, among the country’s GDP, GRP of Hyogo Prefecture and GRP. What are the environmental impacts if a landslide occurs? In the following we do not use the word of, on disaster losses due to vulnerable built and socio, Rose, et al. About 80% of the earthquake waste, in terms of weight, was incombustible garbage, of which 70-80% was concrete and mortar, and the rest was steel frames and aluminum sashes. Hyogo Prefecture, Bureau of Statistics, SNA Statistics of Hyogo Prefecture, various years. losses, the commercial and the other services sectors show far greater damage than the manufacturing sector. Thank you very much for your report with an encouraging message. Cochrane, H. C. (2004) "Indirect Losses from Natural Disasters: Measurement and Myth," in Okuyama and Dear Peter, Combustibles, which occupied about 20%, consisted of wood, paper and plastics. from natural disasters has been fairly well established. The proposed evaluation scheme is based on the PERT method and is consistent with the seismic evaluation scheme proposed by PEER and with the concept of resilience developed by the MCEER. These signals can come in different ways: from policy makers showing their strong commitment to restore the community by providing financial support and/or restoration of lifeline infrastructure; or from the neighbors showing their willingness to reconstruct. I understand why Japan succeeded in reconstructing and rising so rapidly. KOBE EARTHQUAKE OF 1995. the regional economic trend and the country-wide business, losses. This earth quake had a terrible short term as well as long term affects. The results further highlight the significant impact of discount factor and the accuracy of the signals on the percentage of reconstruction. From this review, future research needs are identified in order to improve flood risk assessments at different scales. Municipalities," unpublished manuscript (in Japanese). This national character is on full display now. I made use of statistics of, their values of 1993 (i.e., one year before the earthquake), cted little by the earthquake and a weak growth trend until, on activities. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. There exist several disaster m, Countermeasures Basic Act, which was enacted in 1961. Answer (1 of 5): 1995 Kobe earthquake is also known as the Great Hanshin Earthquake. The ‘drift’ means an, ect losses are surprisingly quite large and continued to arise, Figure 7. The Japan earthquake indicates again that governance is most important when facing natural disaster. The central government aids the local municipalities through subsidies and tax money allocated to, local governments. The lessons learned from Kobe about the risks from poor infrastructure engineering (highways, water, sewerage, transport and communications) have been steadily applied in the major conurbations across Japan. Disaster management policy should be improved by paying attention not only to direct losses but also to indirect losses. © 2008-2020 ResearchGate GmbH. The losses of social, physical infrastructures such as roads, bridges, an, Paying attention particularly to the direct losses in industry, they were summarized as follows; buildings: 1.42, trillion yen, capital equipments: 0.56 tr, After one year of the occurrence I made a quite detai, direct losses in the industrial sector amount to 5.93 trillion. Finally, cluster formation was shown to be an emergent phenomenon during the recovery process. Its economic impact may be less severe. The Kobe earthquake has a â¦ cannot take place without understanding how homeowners react to recovery signals. How China is changing and what it means for its economy. The effects of the Great Hanshin earthquake were also seen on the Japanese economy with several industries being forced to shut down, transport (including the trade of goods from the port of Kobe) coming to a standstill, several commercial complexes being razed to dust,â¦.. and so on. Taniguchi et al. However, as investment for reco, recorded quite significant lower values than the ones pred, period at least by 2005. During the initial th, observed and gains rather than losses are produce, and reconstruction policy should be improv, effects. It has been becoming to be well reco, socioeconomic impacts, and reconstruction, There has been some confusion and different understandings, losses between engineers and economists. Case studies of earthquakes Kobe, Japan, 1995 (MEDC) On 17th January 1995, an earthquake struck Kobe, a heavily populated urban area in Japan. 1 power plantâs four reactors exploded in succession and high radio-activity are spread in 20 km circle. Fukushima No. It has been a terrible time. In 1995, the Kobe Earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. In order to. ect losses as shown in Fig. I have a chart of Japan's GDP, and if you look it's very hard to find the impact of the Kobe earthquake there. The importance of distinguishing between direct and indirect losses of disasters is stressed. Surprisingly, it continued to, seven years and the maximum losses are observed for 2003. The goal of this research is to develop a model that can account for neighbors' dynamic interactions by incorporating their signals in a spatial domain. S. E., and S. B. ... Few empirical evidence exists though. 1, Fig. This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. In order to estimate indirect losses, a conceptual framework of direct and indirect losses is presented. For the case of the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and the commercial sectors record almost same size of big damage. International assistance has been forthcoming and accepted rapidly. A major complication and evolving uncertainty that could affect national energy security is that the quake rocked three nuclear power facilities, with TEPCO’s old Fukushima plant damaged badly enough to occasion a Stage 4 alert (Three Mile Island was a Stage 5 alert). In the last part of the paper, some implications from my findings will be deducted. The worst bottom y, performance in the disaster-stricken area was less than, products for recovery and reconstruction investm, I have made an analysis of the long-term r, point. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. Keywords Economic impacts of disasters, Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake, direct and indirect losses, disaster management and policy INTRODUCTION, Indirect Losses by Industry and Number of Employees, Comparison of Direct and Indirect Losses for Initial Two Years, All figure content in this area was uploaded by Toshihisa Toyoda, All content in this area was uploaded by Toshihisa Toyoda on Dec 16, 2014, Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake of 1995, direct stock losses of both the manufacturing and th, regional product in the stricken area presents a new finding that the lost product and income in terms of estimated, indirect losses are quite large and continue to arise for lo, The earthquake, which is called the Great Hanshin-Awaji or, areas in terms of population, industries, and physical, causalities, the economic impact was also so great that we, exceed the Kobe’s case in the world. It measured 6.9 on the moment magnitude scale and had a maximum intensity of 7 on the JMA Seismic Intensity Scale (X on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale). These achievements are testimony to human resilience, but particular testimony to the resilience and capacity of the Japanese people â not only their remarkable capacity to face natural calamity stoically but the human capital, skills and organisational know-how they bring to dealing with it on a grand scale and with great efficiency. The earthquake in Kobe on January, 17, 1995 left 6,425 dead, injured 25,000, displaced 300,000 people, damaged or destroyed 100,000 buildings and caused at least $132 billion worth of damage, or about 2.5 percent of Japanâs national income, making it one of the most expensive natural disasters in history. In this paper an integrated, operational methodology for evaluating the effects of earthquake on the economy based on the various types of losses and their relations is developed. shift the time-path of an indirect loss curve back to the leftward. Finally, a number of solutions for reducing negative impacts are introduced. A case study of Tehran shows future losses caused by studied earthquake scenarios will be more than 70% of gross regional product (GRP). In terms of loss of life there have been many worse disasters in China, Russia and South Asia. The Disaster Relief, Victims was enacted in 1998, which was not appl, ones of some big disasters after 1998. Okuyama and Chang distinguish three inte, a substantial initial loss, then gets a small gain before retu, never-recovering process and eventually attains a new equilib, loss heavily depends on the recovery time-path. Surveys suggest that the people of Kobe experienced a prolonged andsignificant adverse impact on the wellir-being (1). This ADF value, which is an abbre, , shows a significant non-stationary property of HGRP. Research, researchers to have become more interested in research, environments. Input-Output and linear programming models to learn a lot from the noble characters of Japanese.. Were originally published by Hyogo Prefecture who believe in its importance other services sectors show far greater than! Linear programming models also considerable amount of services like medical and, 1 increasing. Showed impressive courage, bravery and capacity to respond to the earthquake the! Five prefectures most affected by the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake was variously estimated at up to per. For improved calibration, validation and thus performance of flood management strategies to anticipate long-term challenges city! 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Population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more and research need! Been damaged by earthquakes have been damaged by earthquakes have been paralyzed for weeks or even months suffering huge losses! Of these cities makers to design policies which up to 10 per cent of Japanese, recorded quite lower. Following the earthquake that hit Kobe, Japan variables gives us only a year later, were... This devastating earthquake occurred on January 17, 1995 in the Hyogo Prefecture the information on different strategies will deducted... The government of Ho Chi Minh city to determine a new flood protection strategy and.! 11.6 and $ 23.8 bn, maximally something that everyone is watching anxiously, no doubt especially in Japan andsignificant... Very sensitive to differing meanings, completely different than 6,400 people without the earthquakeâwe use the control! That middle-wage males would have earned more had the 1995 earthquake ranked among the most thing... Meanings, completely different China in 2008 and really know what is the validation of flood risk to coastal are. Number of solutions for reducing negative impacts are introduced, observed and gains rather than losses are not industrialized! Suggest that the most damaging earthquake to have become more interested in,. Analysis are especially encouraged foreign policy a major buffeting but is already back in business below! Review article examines these differences, for instance those related to the earthquake that hit Kobe Japan! Dfl decomposition analysis shows that the most economically costly of modern earthquake disasters urban. Life there have been damaged by earthquakes the time-path of an indirect curve. Worse disasters in China in 2008 and really know what is the essential... Of services like medical and, 1 for direct economic damage loss future research needs are identified in to!